Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) 2019 Interim Report Comments: Cost is slightly pressured but gradual performance is still expected to grow

Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) 2019 Interim Report Comments: Cost is slightly pressured but gradual performance is still expected to grow
In the first half of 2019, the company’s cost pressure affected by policy factors increased, but in the long term, the company’s northwestern region’s coal leader has a solid level, the production capacity will increase in the next three years, and the carbonization of coal will also be conducive to the opening of the Mongolia-Huawei Railway, with significant room 杭州桑拿网 for growth, Maintain “Buy” rating. Net profit for the first half of 2019 temporarily decreased by 1.23%, mainly dragged down by the Q1 northern Shaanxi coal mine’s main mine output reduction.The company’s H1 in 2019 achieved operating income / net profit of 325.8.6 billion / 58.71 ppm, +24 a year.16% /-1.23%, EPS is 0.60 dollars.Q2 net profit was 30.97 ppm, basically flat for one year, +11 from the previous month.61%, mainly due to strict Q1 regional safety supervision bureau, the company’s mines phased out of production, Q2 production resumed growth. Self-produced coal sales increased by 3%, and policy factors led to a 19% annual increase in unit cost.The company’s H1 coal production / sales in 2019 were 5370/7730 each year, each time +1.87% / + 18.18%, of which 5267 tons of self-produced coal sales, +2 per year.91%, the increase mainly comes from the Xiaobaodang No.1 mine that entered the joint trial operation, and the annual increase is expected to contribute about 1,000 tons.The average selling price of commercial coal is 386 yuan / ton, more than three years.8%, of which the average selling price of self-produced coal is 376.04 yuan / ton, previously +2.50%, mainly due to the impact of security supervision this year, the overall supply in northern Shaanxi is tight, and prices remain high.The full unit cost of the company’s original coal preparation was 206.13 yuan / ton, previously +18.99%, mainly due to the environmental governance fund and the increase in the resource tax rate in Yulin (from 6% to 9%) caused the unit cost to increase by about 20 yuan / ton. The company’s capacity growth is clear, and the opening of the Menghua Railway will effectively increase the volume and price levels of coal sales.The company is endowed with high quality resources and long-term output growth with high certainty. At present, Xiaobaodang Well No. 1 (1500 tons) has been put into operation, and the construction of Well No. 2 (1300 tons) is progressing at the same time. It is expected that it will reach full production in the next two years.In addition, the Menghua Railway in which the company shares is expected to open to traffic at the end of the year. In the future, the company’s volume and price level in the “two lakes and one river” market are expected to further increase. Risk factors: Fluctuations in macroeconomic growth affect coal demand and prices.The operation progress of Menghua Railway is less than expected. Investment suggestion: Considering the company’s cost increase and 北京桑拿网 the latest coal price forecast, we lower the company’s 2019?The EPS forecast for 2021 is 1.12/1.17/1.21 yuan (previous forecast was 1.)14/1.22/1.27 yuan).For now 8.92 yuan, corresponding to 2019?21 years PE 8/8 / 7x.We give the company a target price of 11.20 yuan, corresponding to PE 10x in 2019, and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Xinyangfeng (000902) 2019 Interim Report Review: Bright Performance Replacing Green Harbor and Other Provisions Extend 23%

Xinyangfeng (000902) 2019 Interim Report Review: Bright Performance Replacing Green Harbor and Other Provisions Extend 23%

The company’s net profit attributable to mothers increased by 17 in the first half of 2019.

06% (Excluding Green Harbor and other accruals will increase by 23.
.

29%), this performance growth is particularly bright in the absence of a significant recovery in the industry.

Our long-term view of the company remains unchanged.

Maintain 2019/20/21 EPS forecast to 0.

74/0.

90/1.

08 yuan, maintain target price of 17 yuan and “buy” rating.

The performance in the first half of 2019 increased significantly, increasing by 17 each year.

06%.

The company announced that the revenue for the first half of 2019 will increase by 4 each year.

25% (Phosphate 南宁桑拿 compound fertilizer increased by 11 in ten years.

05%, the change in the trading business through confirmation methods decreased by 57.

96%); net profit attributable to mother 6.

3 billion, an increase of 17 per year.

06%, a significant increase (excluding the Green Harbor accrual of 23 per year.

29%), this performance growth is particularly bright in the absence of a significant recovery in the industry.

The preliminary performance growth includes: 1. The number of reports, the company’s conventional compound fertilizer sales and market share have steadily increased; 2. The company actively grasped the development potential, and promoted the significant increase in new fertilizer sales.

Operating health is healthier and profitability significantly improved.

From the perspective of product structure, the 杭州桑拿网 proportion of new fertilizers increased, and the sales of conventional fertilizers increased by 5 in the first half of this year.

13%, income increased by 11.

84%; sales of new fertilizers increased by 23.

01%.

Income increased by 28.

32%.

Based on continuous data in recent years, 2016/17/18 / 19H1 new type fertilizer accounted for 8% of revenue.

66/11.

62/13.

66/18.

82%, gross profit to total gross profit ratio was 13 respectively.

27/15.

98/17.

02/22.

61%.

Incremental earnings of new products The company’s profit has increased significantly, and net profit attributable to mothers will be achieved in the first half of 20196.

3 billion.

In fact, if the new accrued amount of RMB 38.59 million due to “Green Port Receivables, etc.” is excluded, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent should be 6.
69 ppm, an increase of 23 per year.
29%.

In the future, the phosphorus rectification will continue to advance, and the company will benefit for a long time.

On April 30 this year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the “Implementation Plan for the Investigation and Rectification of the” Three Phosphorus “in the Yangtze River.” On July 8, the Hubei Environmental Supervision Corps announced that the province had completed the special investigation on “Three Phosphorus” and subsequently entered the remediation stageIt is planned to basically complete the “three phosphorus” rectification task by 2020.

After investigation, there were 210 “three phosphorus” companies in Hubei Province, of which 74 had outstanding environmental protection problems, accounting for 35.

twenty four%.

The industry has feedback since the remediation, and the domestic phosphate fertilizer output fell by 5% in the first half of the year.

With the gradual deepening of the rectification, the enterprises on the right will benefit more.

Increase repurchase efforts and be optimistic about the company’s long-term development.

After the company passed the repurchase program in August 2018, as of March 31, 2019, the company converted and repurchased 13,748,059 shares of the company through centralized bidding transactions, accounting for 1.
.

05%, the total amount paid is 1.

25 billion.

On this basis, the company announced that the repurchase plan was adjusted from “not more than 1 trillion, not more than 5 trillion (inclusive)” to “not more than 3 trillion, not more than 5 trillion (inclusive)”.

The shares to be repurchased this time will be the target shares of the company’s future reorganization of the equity incentive plan at an appropriate time.

If the upper limit is 10 yuan / share, each repurchase corresponds to 10 million shares, accounting for 13 of the total share capital.

0 billion shares of 0.

77%.

As of July 31, 2019, the company repurchased 14,542,659 shares of the company in an incremental bidding transaction, accounting for 1.
.

11%, the highest price is 10.

00 yuan / share, the lowest transaction price is 8.

43 yuan / share, the total payment amount is 1.

33 ppm (excluding transaction costs).

Risk factors: The company’s sales growth rate is lower than expected; agricultural product prices have fallen sharply.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Based on the optimistic view of the company’s industrial chain layout and long-term strategy, our long-term optimistic view of the company remains unchanged.

Maintain 2019/20/21 EPS forecast to 0.

74/0.

90/1.

08 yuan, maintain target price of 17 yuan (corresponding to 13 times PE in 2019), maintain “Buy” rating.