Tonghua Dongbao (600867): Second-generation insulin terminal steadily increases insulin glargine approval

Tonghua Dongbao (600867): Second-generation insulin terminal steadily increases insulin glargine approval
Do we maintain forecasts for Tonghua Dongbao 2019?In 2021, the EPS will be 0.47/0.59/0.70 yuan; the company is on a very good diabetes track, the third generation of insulin is being approved, although the speed is later than the relative, but the sales model has obvious advantages, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating.  The same period last year led to a high base.Tonghua Dongbao’s 2019 interim report revenue fell slightly in ten years.96%, shareholders’ net profit fell slightly to zero in ten years.85%, deducting non-net profit slightly increased by 1% each year, basically in line with our July 3 interim report forward-looking report forecast of 2%.The fastest preliminary result of the growth in revenue and net profit is that the increase in insulin into the channel in the first half of last year led to a higher base.The company cleared its commercial inventory in the third quarter of last year and cleared its terminal inventory in the fourth quarter. This year’s budgeted sales volume can already represent the actual usage of the terminal.EPS 0 in the first half.26 yuan, budget operating cash flow is 0.28 yuan, a good match, indicating that the company’s commercial and terminal inventory is well de-allocated, and sales are in line with receivables and terminal usage.Real estate business’s first half net profit was 2236.8 yuan, down 42 every year.6%, a slight drag on performance.  Insulin continues to grow slightly at high bases.Insulin income in the first half of the year11.7 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.5%, we estimate that the sales of domestic insulin preparations increased by about 6%, and sales revenue increased by about 3%.The first half of last year led to a high base, and Jilin Province and other parts of the bidding, the implementation of the national minimum price, resulting in a slight decline in the average average ex-factory price. Therefore, the company’s insulin preparation sales in the first half of this year can actually increaseNot easy, indicating that terminal demand is still strong, growing at least 10% or more.The gross profit margin of the parent company declined in the first half of the year2.For three units, we judge that the growth rate of the insulin bulk drug is higher than that of the preparation, and the second reason is the bid price.  Immediate approval for insulin glargine.Insulin glargine has completed the on-site inspection. We estimate that the sample inspection phase of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has begun in July. It is expected that the sample inspection will take at least one month. Therefore, it is expected that the procedures of the Chinese Academy of Sciences will be completed this month.After that, the administrative approval was 杭州夜网 conducted at a faster speed. Therefore, we expect that insulin glargine can be approved by October at the latest.The adjustment of the medical insurance list this year means that there may be a bidding for the convergence range next year, and insulin glargine is likely to catch up with the progress of the bidding without being delayed.  Expectations for future performance.The first half of the year was a low point for the company’s performance, which has been exhausted. We expect the second half of the year: (1), 18Q3 radically destocked and only issued 2 months of goods, which means that 19Q3 parent company’s revenue is also at least 50% growth, we expect 18Q3 The parent company’s revenue growth rate is 60%; (2) 18Q4 digests terminal inventory, the base is not high, and the effect of bidding price adjustment has been realized in 杭州夜网 18Q4, we estimate that the parent company’s revenue growth rate in 19Q4 is about 15%.(3) It is estimated that the long-term parent company’s revenue growth rate is about 18%. Unless the real estate business is dragging down the performance, we expect the long-term net profit growth rate to be 15%.(4) We predict that insulin glargine will contribute 50 million yuan in net profit in 2020, which will drive performance growth by more than 20%.  Maintain earnings forecasts and ratings.Do we maintain forecasts for 2019?The net profit growth in 2021 is 15% / 23% / 20%, and the EPS is 0.47/0.59/0.70 yuan; the company is on a very good diabetes track, the third generation of insulin is being approved, although the speed is later than the relative, but the sales model has obvious advantages, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating.  Risk warning: product production and sales fall short of expectations, and research and development progress falls short of expectations.